Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251029 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 75.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 58.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 29.5 34.4 34.6 50.4 63.2 71.7 64.3 N N U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 83.0 73.0 54.0 24.0 9.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 74.3 67.3 58.6 50.5 18.0 3.8 -41.6 -49.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 70.0 57.0 71.0 61.0 121.0 111.0 119.0 98.0 N N N N F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 47.0 44.0 54.0 U U U U U VU VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 16.0 16.0 26.0 47.0 66.0 217.0 141.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 1.8% 1.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.06 AL132025 251029 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 75.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 29.5 34.4 34.6 50.4 63.2 71.7 64.3 N N F F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 56.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 47.0 44.0 54.0 F F F F F VF VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 16.0 16.0 16.0 26.0 47.0 66.0 217.0 141.0 F F F VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 10.4% 5.2%