Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251029 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -30.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 49.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.20 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 34.5 34.1 39.4 54.9 59.8 62.7 58.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 86.0 93.0 48.0 34.0 26.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N F N U U U U U Potential [kt] 77.3 68.6 53.0 38.0 15.9 -1.6 -38.5 -37.7 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 71.0 60.0 59.0 80.0 125.0 91.0 159.0 74.0 N N N N F F VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 51.0 55.0 53.0 51.0 42.0 49.0 61.0 U U U U U VU U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 12.0 20.0 23.0 46.0 119.0 211.0 104.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 AL132025 251029 18UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 75.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.