Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     74.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     93.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     78.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.0  38.3  40.9  48.4  53.7  64.4  49.9  36.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  40.0  31.0  25.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         66.5  53.0  38.0  25.4  13.8 -31.8 -39.8 -39.4  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    73.0  87.0  76.0  87.0 113.0 108.0  86.0  84.0  N  F  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  55.0  52.0  44.0  41.0  55.0  66.0  U  U  U  U VU VU  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  17.0  20.0  30.0  36.0  59.0 200.0 209.0  28.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        1.1%        1.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.0%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.74

 AL132025 251030 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.50     74.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.