Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251030 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 73.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 85.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 97.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 134.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.8 39.4 48.5 53.2 59.1 61.3 54.0 28.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 40.0 25.0 33.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.5 41.0 20.4 10.9 -8.1 -44.1 -43.2 -43.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 92.0 87.0 113.0 106.0 83.0 173.0 103.0 83.0 F F F F N VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 50.0 53.0 48.0 38.0 46.0 60.0 74.0 U U U U VU VU N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 19.0 25.0 37.0 30.0 121.0 207.0 90.0 -37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.5% 2.2% 6.4% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 1.1% 1.0% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.5% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.22 AL132025 251030 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.90 73.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 85.