Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.4  49.1  54.1  56.7  59.8  53.7  42.4  20.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  25.0  35.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         28.0  15.4   5.9   3.8 -41.8 -49.5 -48.1 -49.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0 113.0 113.0 101.0 134.0  80.0  94.0  45.0  N  F  F  F VF  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  49.0  44.0  39.0  56.0  69.0  76.0  U  U  U VU VU  U  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  33.0  30.0  29.0  74.0 131.0 164.0  53.0 -54.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.0%        0.5%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 AL132025 251030 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.70     72.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.