Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251030 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 70.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 80.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 60.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.6 53.1 57.3 60.2 60.9 48.1 31.2 18.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 25.0 32.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 15.4 5.9 3.8 -13.1 -48.5 -47.7 -49.4 -48.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 121.0 133.0 127.0 103.0 134.0 105.0 90.0 61.0 F VF F F VF F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 49.0 44.0 37.0 46.0 64.0 74.0 70.0 U U VU VU VU N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 21.0 11.0 56.0 138.0 158.0 62.0 -19.0 -72.0 VU U VU VU VU VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.44 AL132025 251030 18UTC Storm Located at : 28.90 70.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90.