Rapid Intensification Guidance

 AL132025 251031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.40     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        51.6  55.3  60.8  64.0  63.8  38.0  21.4  19.2 VU VU VU VU VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         10.9   8.8  -8.8 -37.3 -44.8 -43.2 -44.0 -43.3 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 142.0 106.0 121.0  84.0  72.0  40.0  38.0  F VF  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  41.0  38.0  38.0  54.0  70.0  76.0  73.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  71.0  86.0 106.0 144.0  13.0 -58.0 -60.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 22.08

 AL132025 251031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.40     68.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.