Rapid Intensification Guidance AL132025 251031 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 62.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.20 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 63.1 64.7 62.5 60.5 41.6 17.3 11.5 11.7 VU VU VU VU VU F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 2.6 -26.9 -33.7 -34.6 -33.9 -33.9 -33.1 -32.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 128.0 127.0 130.0 59.0 84.0 55.0 23.0 48.0 F F F N N N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 39.0 46.0 56.0 61.0 69.0 70.0 70.0 VU VU VU U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 119.0 144.0 162.0 119.0 0.0 -58.0 -42.0 -25.0 VU VU VU VU N VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.44 AL132025 251031 12UTC Storm Located at : 37.50 62.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75.