Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  32.0  29.7  29.9  35.5  25.7  23.5  24.0  U  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  16.0  12.0  11.0  76.0  55.0  50.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         56.5  56.5  58.6  60.7  56.5  58.6  60.7  60.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0 -10.0   4.0  27.0 -20.0  44.0  36.0   2.0  N  U  U  U VU  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 CP012025 250730 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20    157.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  32.0  29.7  29.9  35.5  25.7  23.5  24.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  54.0  56.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        6.7%        3.4%