Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012025 250802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    179.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  28.1  21.6  18.1  18.7  17.4  14.5  19.7  U  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  59.0  54.0  45.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        134.6 134.6 137.0 137.0 139.3 140.0 140.0 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -4.0 -11.0  -8.0 -31.0 -30.0 -32.0 -31.0   3.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        2.7%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.8%        2.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%        3.3%        4.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h       14.5%       10.4%       12.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.20

 CP012025 250802 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.90    179.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  28.1  21.6  18.1  18.7  17.4  14.5  19.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  57.0  57.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  50.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   4.0  -3.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%