Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    173.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.3  17.5  18.7  17.6  25.6  33.8  32.4  F  F  F  N  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  54.0  48.0  46.0  44.0  27.0  19.0  15.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        139.3 140.0 140.0 139.3 139.3 137.0 125.7 111.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -34.0 -22.0   3.0 -18.0 -12.0  16.0 -13.0  -1.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       11.3%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.6%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.6%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       15.4%        8.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.4%        5.7%        3.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.6%        8.0%        8.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.2%        4.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        6.4%        4.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 CP012025 250803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.20    173.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    107.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.3  17.5  18.7  17.6  25.6  33.8  32.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  64.0  59.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  62.0  65.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%