Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     39.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  15.8  15.5  19.3  18.2  26.0  20.2  20.2  F  F  F  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  32.0  24.0  23.0  16.0  16.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.5 105.5 105.5  99.8 101.6 101.6 105.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  27.0  24.0  16.0  39.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  50.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   9.0   9.0  F  N  F  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.2%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.4%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        2.7%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h       14.3%        5.2%        9.7%
 70kt / 48h        5.2%        1.7%        3.5%
 65kt / 72h        4.3%        3.1%        3.7%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 CP022025 250729 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.40    147.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.