Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022025 250730 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 152.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.1 25.8 25.7 28.8 35.2 35.2 35.2 35.2 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 12.0 11.0 15.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 101.6 98.0 98.0 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 11.0 31.0 12.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 48.0 49.0 51.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 49.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 2.0 1.0 -4.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 -2.0 N N N F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 CP022025 250730 06UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 152.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.