Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP022025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.1  29.4  31.7  36.1  36.1  36.1  36.1  36.1  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  11.0  17.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.6  98.0  99.8 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  16.0  25.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  29.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0  -6.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  -4.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.02

 CP022025 250730 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    154.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.