Rapid Intensification Guidance CP022025 250730 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 155.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.00 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 25.4 30.2 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 32.7 N N N U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 13.0 19.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.0 98.0 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 5.0 12.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 50.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 -4.0 -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N F F N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.96 CP022025 250730 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.70 155.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.