Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012025 250531 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 40.2 37.2 36.1 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.7 38.7 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 20.0 18.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 62.7 62.7 60.7 60.7 60.7 60.7 60.7 60.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 3.0 6.0 3.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 45.0 41.0 41.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 8.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 U U N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.00 EP012025 250531 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.