Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250608 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 102.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 41.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 18.2 23.4 23.5 19.6 24.5 29.8 29.2 F F N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 42.0 44.0 55.0 54.0 32.0 27.0 31.0 30.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9 89.4 73.6 59.3 59.3 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 99.0 105.0 112.0 98.0 66.0 10.0 17.0 44.0 F F F F N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 69.0 70.0 68.0 64.0 61.0 57.0 52.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -7.0 -14.0 -12.0 -7.0 -15.0 -14.0 0.0 F F VF F F VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.3% 11.4% 10.9% 25kt / 24h 32.5% 51.0% 41.7% 30kt / 24h 19.0% 35.6% 27.3% 35kt / 24h 9.8% 35.6% 22.7% 40kt / 24h 8.5% 35.6% 22.0% 45kt / 36h 21.6% 44.5% 33.1% 55kt / 36h 12.9% 24.1% 18.5% 55kt / 48h 34.9% 18.3% 26.6% 70kt / 48h 18.3% 12.5% 15.4% 65kt / 72h 5.5% 7.3% 6.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.74 EP022025 250608 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 102.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.6 18.2 23.4 23.5 19.6 24.5 29.8 29.2 U N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 69.0 70.0 68.0 64.0 61.0 57.0 52.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -7.0 -14.0 -12.0 -7.0 -15.0 -14.0 0.0 U U VU U U VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%