Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250608 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 102.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 90.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 77.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 23.4 21.9 18.0 21.7 28.1 30.7 19.9 F N N F N N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.0 51.0 55.0 43.0 26.0 31.0 25.0 17.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 102.9 94.4 79.4 55.4 48.2 48.2 N N N N N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 97.0 96.0 101.0 86.0 64.0 11.0 14.0 -2.0 F F F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 57.0 52.0 51.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -12.0 -7.0 -5.0 -11.0 -12.0 -8.0 2.0 F F F F F F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 41.5% 38.5% 40.0% 25kt / 24h 64.9% 78.1% 71.5% 30kt / 24h 47.3% 74.3% 60.8% 35kt / 24h 38.9% 74.3% 56.6% 40kt / 24h 32.7% 72.7% 52.7% 45kt / 36h 38.9% 73.3% 56.1% 55kt / 36h 26.0% 59.6% 42.8% 55kt / 48h 38.8% 21.3% 30.1% 70kt / 48h 21.3% 24.5% 22.9% 65kt / 72h 2.4% 8.7% 5.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.38 EP022025 250608 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 102.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 23.4 21.9 18.0 21.7 28.1 30.7 19.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 68.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 57.0 52.0 51.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -12.0 -7.0 -5.0 -11.0 -12.0 -8.0 2.0 U U U U U U U N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%