Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250608 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 103.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 24.7 22.9 20.2 27.1 30.8 31.3 19.5 N N N N N U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 55.0 55.0 43.0 33.0 29.0 30.0 20.0 17.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 102.9 94.4 79.4 63.6 49.3 48.2 45.9 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 95.0 95.0 97.0 87.0 69.0 -3.0 4.0 1.0 F F F F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 62.0 56.0 50.0 46.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -4.0 -11.0 -19.0 -19.0 -13.0 -1.0 F F F F VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.7% 8.9% 10.3% 25kt / 24h 20.3% 29.0% 24.6% 30kt / 24h 13.6% 16.2% 14.9% 35kt / 24h 6.9% 16.2% 11.6% 40kt / 24h 5.8% 16.2% 11.0% 45kt / 36h 8.3% 17.1% 12.7% 55kt / 36h 4.8% 6.5% 5.6% 55kt / 48h 21.6% 8.9% 15.3% 70kt / 48h 8.9% 2.3% 5.6% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 EP022025 250608 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 103.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 106.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.6 24.7 22.9 20.2 27.1 30.8 31.3 19.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 65.0 66.0 65.0 62.0 56.0 50.0 46.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -10.0 -4.0 -11.0 -19.0 -19.0 -13.0 -1.0 U U U U VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%