Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250609 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 104.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 35.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 8.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 25.5 26.1 28.2 31.4 37.1 31.0 26.9 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 47.0 36.0 29.0 30.0 29.0 17.0 18.0 N N U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.6 89.4 89.4 74.4 50.4 44.3 43.2 40.9 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 63.0 53.0 82.0 42.0 20.0 -18.0 -21.0 F N N N N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 58.0 52.0 50.0 45.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -5.0 -8.0 -14.0 -15.0 -22.0 -13.0 -9.0 F F F VF VF VF VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.4% 3.1% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 6.5% 10.0% 8.3% 30kt / 24h 4.3% 4.5% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 1.9% 4.0% 3.0% 40kt / 24h 1.9% 3.8% 2.8% 45kt / 36h 1.4% 3.6% 2.5% 55kt / 36h 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% 55kt / 48h 6.6% 0.3% 3.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.68 EP022025 250609 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 104.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 92.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.8 25.5 26.1 28.2 31.4 37.1 31.0 26.9 N N N N N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 66.0 65.0 64.0 58.0 52.0 50.0 45.0 N N N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -5.0 -8.0 -14.0 -15.0 -22.0 -13.0 -9.0 U U U VU VU VU VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%