Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022025 250609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.5  21.2  25.0  26.3  27.1  28.5  17.3  20.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   46.0  36.0  29.0  27.0  30.0  32.0  28.0  19.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.4  84.4  69.4  62.7  45.4  30.7  27.8  27.8  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  63.0  49.0  14.0  11.0  30.0   3.0 -19.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  51.0  44.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0 -11.0 -13.0 -15.0  -4.0 -10.0   1.0   1.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        5.7%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       10.6%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        6.7%        5.5%        6.1%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%        5.0%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        5.3%        4.6%        5.0%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%        5.0%        3.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        1.5%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.24

 EP022025 250609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    105.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.