Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250609 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 105.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 57.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 37.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 80.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.4 23.6 26.3 28.2 32.5 32.4 29.9 29.9 N N N N U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 39.0 30.0 25.0 25.0 30.0 31.0 26.0 26.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 79.4 64.4 61.0 50.0 33.2 25.7 22.8 22.8 N U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 51.0 24.0 27.0 21.0 -5.0 -41.0 -41.0 N N U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 63.0 60.0 53.0 50.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -9.0 -13.0 -10.0 -9.0 -10.0 -21.0 -21.0 F F VF F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 14.4% 6.6% 10.5% 25kt / 24h 7.4% 9.2% 8.3% 30kt / 24h 6.1% 5.4% 5.7% 35kt / 24h 5.1% 4.9% 5.0% 40kt / 24h 5.1% 3.9% 4.5% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 3.8% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.88 EP022025 250609 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 105.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65.