Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022025 250609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  29.1  26.5  29.1  24.5  29.4  29.4  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  25.0  24.0  26.0  25.0  24.0  24.0  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         64.4  61.0  50.0  44.4  29.8  19.1  19.1  19.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  19.0   3.0   2.0  12.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  60.0  54.0  48.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  N  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -11.0  -7.0  -9.0  -1.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0  F  F  F  F  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        1.2%        2.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        0.7%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        0.5%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.38

 EP022025 250609 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.90    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.