Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022025 250610 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.6  27.6  28.0  32.7  34.7  34.7  34.7  34.7  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  27.0  30.0  28.0  22.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         55.0  55.0  38.2  38.2  24.1  19.2  19.2  19.2  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  11.0  21.0  51.0 -17.0 -49.0 -49.0 -49.0  U  U  U  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  55.0  52.0  46.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -15.0 -10.0  -8.0  -3.0 -12.0 -14.0 -14.0 -14.0 VF  F  F  N  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.48

 EP022025 250610 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.40    107.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.