Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250610 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.5 31.0 36.2 35.6 27.5 34.0 34.0 34.0 N U U U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 29.0 30.0 30.0 28.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 65.0 55.4 48.2 48.2 41.7 37.8 37.8 37.8 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 9.0 -4.0 47.0 32.0 -25.0 -5.0 -5.0 -5.0 U U N N VU U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 57.0 54.0 53.0 46.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -11.0 -15.0 -13.0 -15.0 -17.0 -19.0 -19.0 -19.0 F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.34 EP022025 250610 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.80 107.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.