Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022025 250610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     69.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  35.7  33.8  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.5  28.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  28.0  27.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         53.2  53.2  49.8  39.1  39.1  39.1  39.1  39.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  23.0  40.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  51.0  47.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  45.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0  -6.0  -5.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.42

 EP022025 250610 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    108.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.