Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022025 250610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  30.4  26.5  26.4  26.4  26.4  26.4  26.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  22.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         74.4  59.8  59.8  49.1  49.1  49.1  49.1  49.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  -8.0 -21.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0 -26.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  44.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.48

 EP022025 250610 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    108.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.