Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022025 250611 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.10 F TC SIZE [%] 67.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 22.6 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 25.2 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.4 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -18.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 -15.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 EP022025 250611 00UTC Storm Located at : 21.00 108.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.