Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.9  19.0  17.1  20.1  31.0  26.3  26.2  F  N  N  F  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  15.0  19.0  30.0  37.0  24.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 129.6 120.7 118.6 104.8  94.3  94.3  85.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0 102.0  88.0  87.0  62.0  21.0  18.0   4.0  N  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  70.0  65.0  59.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  12.0   5.0  12.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        2.8%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        6.6%       22.2%       14.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.9%        9.5%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        8.9%        5.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        8.9%        5.1%
 45kt / 36h        6.1%       28.9%       17.5%
 55kt / 36h        3.3%       12.3%        7.8%
 55kt / 48h       12.7%        4.5%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        5.6%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        5.4%        3.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.22

 EP032025 250608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    110.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.9  19.0  17.1  20.1  31.0  26.3  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  76.0  76.0  70.0  65.0  59.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -4.0  -6.0  -4.0  -2.0  12.0   5.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%