Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.4  25.5  23.7  32.7  38.7  32.5  19.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  17.0  26.0  40.0  35.0  32.0  28.0  28.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 110.7 108.6 108.6  94.8  94.8  84.3  66.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    71.0  72.0  62.0  62.0  93.0  26.0  29.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  F  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0  12.0   0.0  -7.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        4.5%        4.4%
 25kt / 24h        8.4%       20.2%       14.3%
 30kt / 24h        5.0%        9.0%        7.0%
 35kt / 24h        4.1%        8.8%        6.4%
 40kt / 24h        4.1%        8.8%        6.4%
 45kt / 36h        4.8%       17.4%       11.1%
 55kt / 36h        2.5%        6.0%        4.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        1.9%        3.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        1.9%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        2.1%        1.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 EP032025 250608 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    110.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.9  22.4  25.5  23.7  32.7  38.7  32.5  19.6  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  76.0  75.0  69.0  66.0  60.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -2.0   2.0  12.0   0.0  -7.0  N  U  N  N  N  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%