Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  18.0  23.4  30.1  33.3  36.6  21.7  24.9  N  F  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  41.0  32.0  27.0  23.0  24.0  26.0  21.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.4  97.4  97.4  86.2  86.2  79.3  70.0  50.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0  19.0  55.0  15.0 -24.0  29.0   1.0 -19.0  N  U  N  U VU  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  72.0  71.0  67.0  64.0  57.0  54.0  42.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -6.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0 -22.0   0.0  -5.0  F  F  N  N  N VF  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        2.3%        2.2%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%        7.7%        5.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        3.4%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.9%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        5.2%        2.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.1%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.36

 EP032025 250609 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.00    112.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.