Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250609 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.7 21.5 27.8 34.1 33.7 31.0 23.2 21.4 N N N U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 43.0 36.0 31.0 28.0 25.0 26.0 24.0 16.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.4 79.8 76.2 76.2 79.8 60.0 50.4 40.9 N N U U N U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 45.0 40.0 -3.0 18.0 13.0 -12.0 -13.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 71.0 70.0 68.0 62.0 57.0 50.0 46.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 0.0 6.0 2.0 -15.0 -12.0 0.0 N N N N N VF F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 16.0% 9.4% 12.7% 25kt / 24h 9.8% 14.5% 12.2% 30kt / 24h 7.5% 8.3% 7.9% 35kt / 24h 6.9% 8.0% 7.4% 40kt / 24h 6.9% 6.3% 6.6% 45kt / 36h 2.8% 10.5% 6.6% 55kt / 36h 1.9% 4.0% 2.9% 55kt / 48h 2.5% 0.7% 1.6% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.16 EP032025 250609 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 113.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.