Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250609 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 113.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 48.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 28.6 35.4 37.4 32.1 24.2 24.8 17.0 N N U U U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 24.0 22.0 22.0 23.0 26.0 19.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.2 71.2 71.2 71.2 64.3 45.4 35.9 27.8 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 56.0 8.0 19.0 5.0 8.0 -7.0 -25.0 N N U U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 58.0 51.0 45.0 37.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 8.0 10.0 1.0 -8.0 -4.0 -1.0 N N U U N F F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.5% 5.0% 9.2% 25kt / 24h 4.4% 6.2% 5.3% 30kt / 24h 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% 35kt / 24h 4.1% 2.8% 3.4% 40kt / 24h 4.1% 2.2% 3.2% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 3.8% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.6% 1.1% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 1.7% 0.2% 1.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.94 EP032025 250609 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 113.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.