Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250610 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 36.6 37.0 35.9 30.9 24.7 18.5 17.7 N U U U U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 22.0 21.0 22.0 25.0 25.0 16.0 12.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.2 71.2 71.2 61.1 55.0 45.4 35.9 28.7 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -5.0 4.0 34.0 66.0 28.0 -52.0 -29.0 -59.0 U U N N U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 67.0 67.0 63.0 61.0 51.0 46.0 39.0 N N N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 7.0 9.0 12.0 -11.0 -14.0 2.0 2.0 N N U U F VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 0.8% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.2% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 EP032025 250610 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 114.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.