Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250610 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 78.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.8 32.3 31.3 32.3 22.2 29.1 23.2 23.2 U U U U N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 22.0 21.0 22.0 26.0 24.0 15.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.2 71.2 71.2 61.1 55.0 45.4 35.9 35.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 13.0 26.0 44.0 36.0 -1.0 -15.0 -36.0 -36.0 U U N N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 68.0 65.0 61.0 58.0 52.0 45.0 45.0 N N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 2.0 3.0 -8.0 -7.0 -16.0 -3.0 -3.0 N N N F F VF N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 EP032025 250610 06UTC Storm Located at : 15.20 114.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.