Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250610 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 114.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.40 F TC SIZE [%] 70.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 28.2 29.4 28.4 25.1 29.6 28.4 28.4 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 21.0 22.0 24.0 26.0 18.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 76.2 76.2 66.1 69.3 50.4 40.9 33.7 33.7 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 36.0 52.0 17.0 -21.0 -37.0 -19.0 -19.0 U N N U VU VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 59.0 59.0 51.0 42.0 36.0 36.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 6.0 8.0 0.0 -5.0 -12.0 -10.0 -10.0 -10.0 N U N F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.60 EP032025 250610 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 114.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.