Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032025 250610 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 115.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 14.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 32.0 30.4 28.3 28.6 25.9 25.5 25.5 U U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 19.0 19.0 21.0 22.0 27.0 22.0 11.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 81.2 71.1 71.1 60.8 55.4 44.8 35.9 35.9 N U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 0.0 -3.0 -8.0 4.0 -12.0 -35.0 -35.0 U U U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 59.0 57.0 51.0 47.0 38.0 32.0 32.0 N U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 0.0 -1.0 -10.0 -7.0 -8.0 -8.0 N N N N F F F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.26 EP032025 250610 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.70 115.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.