Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250611 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.0  29.3  26.6  27.0  27.5  20.4  20.4  20.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  20.0  22.0  24.0  27.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  81.1  70.8  75.0  65.4  54.8  54.8  54.8  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0  21.0   9.0  12.0  -8.0 -40.0 -40.0 -40.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  57.0  53.0  52.0  44.0  34.0  34.0  34.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0  -1.0  -1.0  -7.0  -6.0  -6.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.10

 EP032025 250611 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.80    115.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.