Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  27.8  26.0  26.2  21.8  21.8  21.8  21.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  22.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         81.1  81.1  70.8  75.0  65.4  65.4  65.4  65.4  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  10.0   0.0   1.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  55.0  53.0  51.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -5.0  -7.0 -11.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  -7.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        0.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.98

 EP032025 250611 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.00    114.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.