Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032025 250611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.4  25.9  27.4  22.4  22.4  22.4  22.4  22.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  25.0  25.0  26.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.3  94.3  85.0  85.0  75.4  75.4  75.4  75.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0   5.0   4.0 -20.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0 -28.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  49.0  47.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        2.0%        0.4%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        0.0%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.16

 EP032025 250611 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    113.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.