Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    100.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     19.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  27.7  27.9  26.9  31.4  26.8  30.5  24.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  23.0  29.0  49.0  37.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 116.5  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   152.0 156.0 142.0 132.0 169.0 109.0  89.0  54.0 VF VF VF  F VF  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  83.0  82.0  79.0  F  F VF  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0 -12.0  -4.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        1.6%        1.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.1%       19.9%       14.5%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        7.5%        5.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        7.5%        4.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        7.5%        4.4%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       22.5%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        7.0%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        9.2%       10.8%       10.0%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        7.4%        4.9%
 65kt / 72h        9.0%       20.0%       14.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.54

 EP042025 250612 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10    100.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.4  27.7  27.9  26.9  31.4  26.8  30.5  24.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  87.0  86.0  86.0  83.0  82.0  79.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -3.0  -3.0  -5.0  -6.0  -9.0 -12.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%