Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250613 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  26.4  25.4  29.0  32.4  31.1  28.5  30.6  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  16.0  19.0  26.0  32.0  58.0  39.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 116.5  96.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   131.0 132.0 158.0 147.0 142.0 117.0  70.0  30.0  F  F VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.0%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       14.9%       10.5%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        5.0%        3.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.9%       14.0%        9.5%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        3.7%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        9.5%        7.7%        8.6%
 70kt / 48h        2.4%        4.5%        3.4%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       10.6%        9.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP042025 250613 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.50    100.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.7  26.4  25.4  29.0  32.4  31.1  28.5  30.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  81.0  79.0  78.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%