Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250613 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.5  24.1  29.2  31.3  29.8  28.5  31.8  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  22.0  29.0  30.0  50.0  46.0  34.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 122.9 103.0  92.7  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 142.0 141.0 132.0 108.0  80.0  66.0  26.0  F VF VF  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -4.0  -9.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.7%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.1%       10.6%        6.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        3.1%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        3.0%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%        8.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        1.9%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        4.6%        5.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.2%        1.8%
 65kt / 72h        5.0%        5.4%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 EP042025 250613 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    100.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.5  23.5  24.1  29.2  31.3  29.8  28.5  31.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  84.0  86.0  84.0  81.0  78.0  74.0  71.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -3.0  -6.0  -5.0  -7.0  -6.0  -4.0  -9.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%