Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250613 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.0  30.1  34.2  33.7  30.9  27.5  32.8  N  N  N  U  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  35.0  38.0  47.0  53.0  33.0  35.0  31.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1 110.5  86.5  78.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   118.0 132.0  94.0 131.0 103.0  80.0  53.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  83.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  67.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0  -8.0  -2.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       20.9%       14.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        8.4%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        8.3%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        6.9%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       20.1%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.1%        6.5%        3.8%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        6.6%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        4.4%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.7%        6.8%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 EP042025 250613 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.50    101.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.3  24.0  30.1  34.2  33.7  30.9  27.5  32.8  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  83.0  80.0  77.0  76.0  67.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -6.0  -8.0  -5.0  -5.0  -1.0  -8.0  -2.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%