Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250613 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     81.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  32.1  31.5  31.9  30.8  30.7  35.0  30.2  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  43.0  52.0  57.0  39.0  30.0  35.0  24.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 111.5  89.3  75.8  73.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   120.0 107.0 126.0  88.0  77.0  30.0  26.0  22.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  63.0  56.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0  -6.0 -11.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.4%       34.0%       25.7%
 30kt / 24h        6.1%       18.0%       12.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.2%       18.0%       11.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%       14.6%        7.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.6%       27.8%       16.7%
 55kt / 36h        1.7%       10.7%        6.2%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        5.8%        6.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.4%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        5.1%        3.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 EP042025 250613 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50    102.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.6  32.1  31.5  31.9  30.8  30.7  35.0  30.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  83.0  80.0  78.0  76.0  69.0  63.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0 -10.0  -6.0 -11.0  -3.0  -3.0  -6.0  -9.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%