Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250614 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  28.8  30.7  28.5  27.6  27.4  31.1  26.7  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  48.0  59.0  49.0  31.0  33.0  28.0  25.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 127.0 122.3  98.0  81.5  73.0  71.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   122.0 113.0  90.0  78.0  61.0  19.0  19.0 -24.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  68.0  64.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -7.0  -9.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  -6.0  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.6%        2.3%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h       11.2%       22.8%       17.0%
 30kt / 24h        4.0%        9.9%        6.9%
 35kt / 24h        3.1%        9.9%        6.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        8.1%        4.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       19.0%       11.3%
 55kt / 36h        1.2%        6.6%        3.9%
 55kt / 48h        7.2%        1.9%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        3.5%        2.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        3.7%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 EP042025 250614 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    102.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  28.8  30.7  28.5  27.6  27.4  31.1  26.7  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  81.0  78.0  76.0  75.0  68.0  64.0  55.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -8.0  -7.0  -9.0  -2.0  -7.0  -3.0  -6.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%