Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     64.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  24.7  29.1  29.3  24.8  30.9  27.4  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  57.0  50.0  39.0  30.0  37.0  25.0  27.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 112.3 103.6  79.3  65.8  63.0  61.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  63.0  87.0  25.0  18.0   3.0  18.0 -61.0  F  N  F  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  68.0  64.0  56.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0  -6.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.0%        8.7%        9.3%
 25kt / 24h       21.8%       35.8%       28.8%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       22.5%       17.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.1%       22.5%       17.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%       19.0%       10.3%
 45kt / 36h        6.9%       26.0%       16.4%
 55kt / 36h        3.4%       11.3%        7.3%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        1.8%        4.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        3.8%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.7%        1.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.38

 EP042025 250614 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.60    103.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.4  24.7  29.1  29.3  24.8  30.9  27.4  28.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   80.0  79.0  78.0  78.0  68.0  64.0  56.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -8.0  -6.0  -9.0  -5.0  -3.0  -4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%