Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     89.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.6  24.7  26.5  25.8  27.7  25.4  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  46.0  36.0  31.0  38.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.0  98.6  90.5  83.0  60.8  58.0  52.9  56.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0 100.0  70.0  52.0  -4.0  14.0 -12.0 -42.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  51.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0  F  F  F  N  F  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.5%       12.6%       13.1%
 25kt / 24h       24.4%       36.9%       30.7%
 30kt / 24h       12.9%       26.0%       19.4%
 35kt / 24h       12.3%       26.0%       19.2%
 40kt / 24h        2.9%       20.0%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.8%       25.8%       16.3%
 55kt / 36h        4.0%       12.1%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       10.7%        3.7%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        3.7%        3.5%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 EP042025 250614 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.20    104.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.7  26.6  24.7  26.5  25.8  27.7  25.4  25.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  66.0  63.0  55.0  51.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -9.0  -7.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  -7.0  -4.0  U  U  U  N  U  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%