Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     73.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     51.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.1  25.7  24.5  29.6  26.5  29.1  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  41.0  34.0  32.0  39.0  27.0  25.0  23.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.3  93.6  85.5  78.0  67.7  63.0  47.9  54.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   123.0  55.0  25.0  21.0   6.0   4.0 -47.0 -35.0  F  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  F  F  F  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       13.0%        8.8%       10.9%
 25kt / 24h       17.7%       25.1%       21.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       15.6%       13.3%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%       15.6%       12.9%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       12.9%        7.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.0%       14.5%        9.7%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        5.5%        4.2%
 55kt / 48h        6.1%        1.5%        3.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.72

 EP042025 250614 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.60    104.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.9  26.1  25.7  24.5  29.6  26.5  29.1  26.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  78.0  76.0  71.0  66.0  59.0  53.0  48.0  U  U  U  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -4.0  -1.0  -6.0  -7.0  -4.0  -6.0  -1.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%