Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP042025 250615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  22.6  25.0  23.9  27.7  26.2  24.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  35.0  31.0  32.0  36.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  85.5  78.0  61.5  53.0  53.0  47.9  47.9  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    50.0  27.0   0.0  -4.0  -6.0   9.0 -44.0 -44.0  N  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  77.0  73.0  68.0  63.0  54.0  51.0  51.0  F  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0  -4.0  -5.0  -2.0  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0  F  N  F  F  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.4%        2.9%        3.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        6.2%        4.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.3%        3.1%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.7%        2.5%        2.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        2.1%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.1%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        0.9%        0.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.9%        0.3%        2.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.18

 EP042025 250615 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    105.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.